Gale Warning 491, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 141139
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED JUN 14 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 997 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN TO 991 MB.

$$

PKZ120-150200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT WED JUN 14 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT WED JUN 14 2006

.TODAY...WINDS BECOMING S 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3
FT.  RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT WED JUN 14 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT WED JUN 14 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-150200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT WED JUN 14 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT WED JUN 14 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT WED JUN 14 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT WED JUN 14 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT WED JUN 14 2006

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE JUN 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...
STILL NO CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA WILL STILL
PROGRESSES EASTWARD WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
THURSDAY.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS INTO THE
STATE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TODAY ALONG WITH NEXT SYSTEM IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON
WEDNESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE 300 MB JET STAYS WELL TO
THE SOUTH RUNNING ALONG 45N KEEP THIS SYSTEM IN THE GULF.

THE MODELS CONTINUE INITIALIZED VERY WELL. THEY REMAIN IN SHORT TERM
AGREEMENT BUT THE PARALLEL NAM DIVERTS FROM THE NAM AND GFS AT 36 HRS
BY DRIVING THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA EASTWARD AND WEAKENING IT TO
A TROUGH BY 48 HRS. THIS IS THE SECOND MODEL RUN THAT THIS HAPPENS.
WILL SEE IF THE GFS 12Z RUN CATCHES UP TO THIS SOLUTION. OTHERWISE
THE NAM/GFS WILL PROBABLY VERIFY.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
EXPECT DIMINISHING CLOUDS TODAY AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA
AREAS TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING BY WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KB JUN 06