Small Craft Advisory 527, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT MON JUN 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA WILL STILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY.

THE MODELS INITIALIZED VERY WELL THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOCATION OF
THE WEAK LOWS IN THE WEST AND THE AXIS OF THE HIGH IN THE EAST. THEY
REMAIN IN AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH 72 HOURS BRING THE NEXT LOW UP TO
ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK BY WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH OVER THE GULF IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST ALLOWING MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF TO
SPREAD FURTHER EAST. CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND RAIN OVER MOST AREAS IN
THE EAST ARE EXPECTED TODAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST ALONG
50N THE HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER INTERIOR TUESDAY. THIS MAY HELP
DRY THINGS OUT SOMEWHAT. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
COPPER RIVER AREA SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS STILL DOMINATING THE BERING SEA.  SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL STILL BE CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THAT SHOULD CUT OFF WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
WESTWARD ON TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130.
FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH 141.

JUN 06