Small Craft Advisory 526, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM ADT SUN JUN 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...PARALLEL NAM STILL INITIALIZED BEST. NCEP MODEL MLSP
TRENDS ARE REASONABLE AND IN FAIR AGREEMENT. MODELS ALL APPEAR SLOW
WITH BRINGING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL/NORTH GULF COAST. CURRENT
RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE FEED HAS ADVANCED FURTHER
INTO THE NORTH GULF/SOUTHCENTRAL THEN EARLIER PROJECTIONS. THIS
INDICATES IN PART THAT THE GULF HIGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST.

.EAST...
GULF HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST ALLOWING
MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF TO SPREAD FURTHER EAST.
EXPECT CLOUDS AND RAIN TO BE GENERAL RULE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF
THROUGH MON. LOOKS LIKE SOME DRYING AGAIN TUE AS RIDGE REBUILDS OVER
NORTH GULF/SOUTHCENTRAL IN ADVANCE OF NE PACIFIC DEVELOPER. AREAS OF
FOG SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ALONG THE NORTH GULF AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL MON NIGHT AFTER LOSS OF HIGHER CLOUDS.
RED FLAG CONDITIONS REASONABLE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. MON LOOKS LIKE A MORE DIFFICULT CALL. ALTHOUGH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON...MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE 40 PERCENT.
E-NE GALES LIKELY WESTERN GULF TUE AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF
DEVELOPING NE PACIFIC CENTER.

.WEST
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR PRIBILOFS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SW. BRISK WINDS OVER BRISTOL BAY SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE...INCREASING WINDS
ALASKA PEN LATER TUE.  MOISTURE OVER SW ALASKA TODAY WILL HOLD
THROUGH MON. DRYING LIKELY TUE AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES PKZ130.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING THRU THIS EVENING.

RMC JUN 06