Small Craft Advisory 522, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM ADT SAT JUN 10 2006

.MODELS...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH 66 HRS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT AND REASONABLE. MODEL DIFFERENCES ON NEXT
DEVELOPING TO APPROACH SOUTH GULF ALASKA AFTER 72 HOURS APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT. PARALLEL NAM AND GFS HAVE SIMILAR PRESSURE...HOWEVER GFS
IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER. GFS RUN TO RUN COMPARISON SHOWS A SLOWING
TREND IN CENTER...SO FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN
EXTENDED WIND FORECASTS FOR GULF.

DISCUSSION...
GENERAL...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BETWEEN 140-150W WILL HOLD THROUGH
MONDAY. INTERIOR TROUGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTH TONIGHT/SUN. UPPER
980S LOW NEAR COLD BAY MOVES TO WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS AND WEAKENS SUN
NIGHT. A WEAK LOW MOVES UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE GULF RIDGE TO OVER
EASTERN BRISTOL BAY MON.

.EAST(AER)...MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL/COPPER
RIVER BASIN TODAY WILL RELAX TONIGHT AS INTERIOR TROUGH WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS NORTH. RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENTS SUN WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
NORMAL AFTERNOON/EVENING WIND REGIMES TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN DOMAIN. EXCEPTION WOULD BE WESTERN GULF/KODIAK ISLAND WHICH
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SE FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
RIDGE. AS RIDGE WEAKENS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL LATER
SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON. SOME DRYING LIKELY LIKELY MON
NIGHT/TUE AS RIDGE BUILDS IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING NE PAC LOW.

.WEST(ALU)...BRISK E-SE FLOW OVER THE SW MAIN WILL HOLD THROUGH
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHOULD SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH SUN AS EASTERN BERING
SEA LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS. DEEP/MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN AK PEN AND SLOW ALASKA WILL CONTINUE
SHWERS/RAINS OVER THE REGION INTO MON. SOME DRYING LIKELY LIKELY MON
NIGHT/TUE AS RIDGE BUILDS IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING NE PAC LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 150 160 180
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAGS 111 141 AND 151.

RMC JUN 06