Small Craft Advisory 520, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM ADT FRI JUN 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...NAM AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND REASONABLE
THROUGH 84 HRS. PARALLEL NAM INITIALIZES BEST ON CENTER SOUTH OF AK
PEN...HOWEVER SOLUTIONS MERGE NICELY TONIGHT.

976 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES NORTH OF COLD BAY
TONIGHT THEN WEAKENS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA SAT/SUN. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND BERING
SEA INTO SUN. OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST TODAY
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL/NORTH GULF COAST EARLY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ON THE BACK SIDE SAT AND CONTINUES OVER THE GULF THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.AER...PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IN
ADVANCE OF OCCLUDED FRONT. GAP WINDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN
STRONG UNTIL FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS OVER
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL HOLD
RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH...RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER SOME
TONIGHT.

PRESSURE RISES ON BACK SIDE OF FRONT SAT WILL PRODUCE BRISK AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. RED FLAGS
WILL PROBABLY BE A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN.

.ALU...BRISK EASTERLY GAP WINDS OVER BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT...STRONGEST WINDS OVER BRISTOL BAY. WIND
SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SAT EVENING AS EASTERN BERING SEA
LOW WEAKENS AND BACKS TOWARD THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. DOWNSLOPE OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY IS SHOWING UP ON SAT IMAGERY. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER SOME TONIGHT. ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE OVER
THE AK PEN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MOVE INTO SW ALASKA SAT. SO EVEN
THROUGH THE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK...WOULD EXPECT WILL BE TOO
MOIST FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 138 150 155 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG 111 141 AND 151.

RMC JUN 06