Small Craft Advisory 512, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT WED JUN 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WITH A
TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST AND A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR IS PROMOTING STRONG AND GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN. THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT IS
BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

MODELS INITIALIZED RELATIVELY WELL. MODELS STILL NOT AGREEING ON LOW
SOUTH OF THE AKPEN PAST 48 HOURS. WILL STILL LEAN TOWARD GFS ON BOTH
DOMAINS BECAUSE OF THE STRONG UPPER JET THAT WILL BE PRESENT FORCING
THE LOW TO FOLLOW THE GFS SOLUTION.

WEST...A FRONTAL BAND FROM AN ALREADY EXISTING LOW JUST SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE AKPEN. ALSO
THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARD
BRISTOL BAY AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW IN
QUESTION ABOVE WILL DEVELOP FAR SOUTH OF THE AKPEN TONIGHT THEN
CONTINUE MOVING NORTH ADDING TO THE MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS LOW.
THIS MEANS A VERY WET REST OF THE WEEK FOR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
DOMAIN. THE WEST ALEUTIANS STAY UNDER SOMEWHAT OF A HIGH...SHOULD
GENERALLY SEE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.

EAST...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY THESE SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE. THE SUSITNA VALLEY NEAR THE PARK COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS FROM THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AS IT SLIDES
SOUTH TODAY. KODIAK ISLAND IS ALREADY SEEING THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FROM THE FRONTAL BAND STRETCHING STRETCHING JUST BELOW THE
AKPEN. COVERAGE AND RAIN WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A SECOND
FRONT WILL BE PUSHED NORTH BY THE DEVELOPING LOW. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
AROUND THIS LOW WILL BRING MORE RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THAT SHOULD
MAKE IT FURTHER INLAND. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL
BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WATERS AS WELL. LOOK FOR CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS AROUND THE REGION ESPECIALLY IN CHANNELED TERRAIN AND IN
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TODAY. THESE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS WITH
RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY WILL RETURN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...THE
SUSITNA VALLEY...AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ZONES TO RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA TODAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
FRONTS MOVING UP THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
TO DECREASE THE DANGER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 132 150
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 111 141 145

LR JUN 06