Small Craft Advisory 511, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 081233
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU JUN 8 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-090200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN TO 983 MB AND MOVE TO 
190 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT FRI AFTERNOON THEN TO 55 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SAND POINT EARLY SAT MORNING AT 988 MB. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI.
$$

PKZ120-090200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT THU JUN 8 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-090200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT THU JUN 8 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-090200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT THU JUN 8 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRI...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-090200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT THU JUN 8 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRI...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-090200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT THU JUN 8 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-090200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT THU JUN 8 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH FRI...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-090200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT THU JUN 8 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH FRI...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-090200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT THU JUN 8 2006

...GALE WARNING FRI...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-090200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT THU JUN 8 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO SE WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT WED JUN 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WITH A
TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST AND A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR IS PROMOTING STRONG AND GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN. THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT IS
BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

MODELS INITIALIZED RELATIVELY WELL. MODELS STILL NOT AGREEING ON LOW
SOUTH OF THE AKPEN PAST 48 HOURS. WILL STILL LEAN TOWARD GFS ON BOTH
DOMAINS BECAUSE OF THE STRONG UPPER JET THAT WILL BE PRESENT FORCING
THE LOW TO FOLLOW THE GFS SOLUTION.

WEST...A FRONTAL BAND FROM AN ALREADY EXISTING LOW JUST SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE AKPEN. ALSO
THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARD
BRISTOL BAY AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW IN
QUESTION ABOVE WILL DEVELOP FAR SOUTH OF THE AKPEN TONIGHT THEN
CONTINUE MOVING NORTH ADDING TO THE MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS LOW.
THIS MEANS A VERY WET REST OF THE WEEK FOR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
DOMAIN. THE WEST ALEUTIANS STAY UNDER SOMEWHAT OF A HIGH...SHOULD
GENERALLY SEE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.

EAST...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY THESE SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE. THE SUSITNA VALLEY NEAR THE PARK COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS FROM THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AS IT SLIDES
SOUTH TODAY. KODIAK ISLAND IS ALREADY SEEING THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FROM THE FRONTAL BAND STRETCHING STRETCHING JUST BELOW THE
AKPEN. COVERAGE AND RAIN WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A SECOND
FRONT WILL BE PUSHED NORTH BY THE DEVELOPING LOW. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
AROUND THIS LOW WILL BRING MORE RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THAT SHOULD
MAKE IT FURTHER INLAND. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL
BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WATERS AS WELL. LOOK FOR CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS AROUND THE REGION ESPECIALLY IN CHANNELED TERRAIN AND IN
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TODAY. THESE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS WITH
RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY WILL RETURN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...THE
SUSITNA VALLEY...AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ZONES TO RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA TODAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
FRONTS MOVING UP THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
TO DECREASE THE DANGER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 132 150
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 111 141 145

LR JUN 06