Small Craft Advisory 504, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SAT JUN 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT ANALYSIS...
A STRONG...COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA. INITIAL WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE AREA ALREADY...ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR IS STILL TO
THE WEST OF A TALKEETNA TO ANCHORAGE TO COOK INLET LINE. SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW HAS EVEN BEEN REPORTED THIS MORNING IN MCGRATH...WHICH IS
OBVIOUSLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS. THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY BOTH AHEAD
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH PRECIPITATION TOTALS BEING VERY
LIGHT SO FAR.  WEAK FLOW HAS PERSISTED IN THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING
SEA...WITH ABUNDANT STRATUS AND FOG. HOWEVER...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM ADAK WESTWARD AHEAD OF A SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR THE MAINLAND...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE COOLER AIR FILTERING THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
AIR WILL BE COOLER THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. HOWEVER...THE COOLER
AIRMASS IS ALSO QUITE DRY...AND AREAS FROM THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
SOUTHWARD SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MONDAY. THE ALASKA RANGE OVER TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT EVEN THERE...NOTHING HEAVY IS EXPECTED. WITH THE DRY
AIR SUNDAY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...FIRE WEATHER COULD BE A CONCERN
FOR SOME AREAS...AND HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES
111...145...AND 161. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER
SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD HAVE A LIGHT FREEZE. MANY AREAS OF THE
MAINLAND TO THE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL HAVE A FREEZE BOTH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
TO HIGHLIGHT THE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER
COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE KUSKOKWIM
RIVER NORTHWEST. THE REST OF THE MAINLAND WILL MAINTAIN TRANQUIL
WEATHER.

FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. THE
LOW WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BIG CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NEAR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...AND JUST A SMALL SHIFT IN THE CENTER OF THE
LOW PRESSURE COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HEAVY PRECIPITATION
AND NO PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL RECEIVE INCREASED
WINDS REGARDLESS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ZONES 175 AND 176.
FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES 111 145 161.

FOISY JUN 06