Small Craft Advisory 486, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
545 AM ADT SAT MAY 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A FOURTH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
AND ANOTHER ONE IN STORE FOR TODAY. THE SOURCE OF THE HEAT IS AN
OMEGA PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR SAINT MATHEW ISLAND. THIS IS COMPRESSING THE AIR OVER SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA RESULTING IN THE RECORD HEAT. LEE SIDE TROF
LOCATED IN NORTHEASTERN GULF AND BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODELS INITIALIZE WELL BUT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED AT 36 HOURS
CONCERNING A LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LACKING CONCERNING THE MUCH ADVERTISED UPPER
FEATURE ENTERING THE GULF AND THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
LOW. FEEL AT THIS TIME A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM IS THE BEST
SOLUTION.

UPPER AIR...THE HIGH THAT HAS REMAINED NEAR SAINT MATHEW ISLAND FOR
THE PAST 4 DAYS WILL SLIP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY REACHING BRISTOL BAY BY

EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE TWO OBVIOUS SHORT WAVES NOTED ON IR AND WV
IMAGERY ARE LOCATED NEAR 170W IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ONE OVER EAST CENTRAL ALASKA MOVING SOUTH RAPIDLY. THE
EAST CENTRAL AK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF LATE THIS
EVENING AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST TODAY AND BE
ABSORBED BY A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE WESTERN BERING BY MONDAY
MORNING. THESE TWO TROFS WILL HELP SQUEEZE THE HIGH OVER BRISTOL BAY
AND EVENTUALLY BREAK IT DOWN BY MIDWEEK.

SOUTHCENTRAL SURFACE...POINTS OF FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
INCLUDE RECORD HIGH POTENTIAL...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...AND
CONSEQUENTLY RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MODELS DID A POOR JOB ON MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY.
EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WOULD HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES BUT STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL INSURE HIGHS CONTINUE
TO REACH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE LOWER SUSITNA VALLEY TODAY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND
WRANGELL MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
MOVES THROUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING ANOTHER RECORD WARM DAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
MARINE STRATUS ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTH GULF ON MONDAY.
RETURN FLOW MAY BRING THE STRATUS NORTHWARD...OTHERWISE EXPECTING A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY.

SOUTHWEST SURFACE...QUIET PATTERN WITH RECORD TEMPERATURES THE ONLY
HEADLINE. KING SALMON ONLY STATION OUT WEST TO BREAK A RECORD
YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH SAINT PAUL MISSED IT BY ONE DEGREE. MARINE STATUS
INVADING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING THANKS TO
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE THE EASTERN BERING
AND HELP PUSH THE STRATUS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN. RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB MAY 06