Small Craft Advisory 484, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1205 PM ADT FRI MAY 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS BERING SEA HIGH BULGING
IN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A RIDGE EASTWARD FROM THERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALASKA. GOES IMAGERY AGAIN TODAY HAS ALOT OF CLEAR SKIES AND
SUN OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF
THE MAINLAND. LOOPING OF THE IMAGES DOES REVEAL SEVERAL BANDS OF
CIRUS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AND ALSO SOME SC JUST SOUTH OF
PACV..WHICH WILL STAY OFFSHORE.

PRETTY STRONG FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE CARRYING A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES OR DISTURBANCES..ONE OF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT THE
ALASKA RANGE IN THE NORTH PART OF ZONES 145 AND 141 AS EARLY AS
TONIGHT OR AS LATE AS MIDDAY SAT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.  SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE
CENTER WILL BE NEAR KUSKOKWIM BAY SO AT THIS POINT MOST OF THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL STAY OFF TO OUR EAST AND ONLY EFFECT THE AREAS
MENTIONED ABOVE. ETA QPF DOES TAKE SOME OF THAT MOISTURE AND DROP
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY SOUTH TO NRN COOK INLET FOR SOME POSSIBLE
SHOWERS AND A FEW MORE CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND THIS DISTURBANCE GOES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
AFTER WHICH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THINGS
OVER JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AND GIVE US SOME GOOD
SUNSHINE AND PRETTY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LOOK FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND IN PARTS OF THE
BERING/B BAY. A LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE PRIBILOFS AND MAYBE NUNIVAK ISLAND POSSIBLY BY LATE
MONDAY OR ON TUESDAY.

IN THE LONGER TERM THAT DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN BERING IS OUT OF
THE MAIN FLOW SO ITS FORECAST DIRECTION AND STRENGTH COULD BE RATHER
DIFFICULT INSIDE OF 48 TO 72 HOURS LET ALONE ANYTHING BEYOND. AT THIS
POINT OUR GFS MODEL TAKES IT INTO BRISTOL BAY ON THURSDAY THEN ON
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL FRI FOR MORE CLOUDINESS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS..ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA. GFS MODEL TAKES AN EVER COLDER AND WETTER SYSTEM INTO THE
STATE LATER ON AFTER THAT. IN REALITY THE UPPER RIDGE MAY HOLD A DAY
OR TWO LONGER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAGS FLYING FOR ZONES 145 AND 141..IF THE
NORTHERLYS PICK UP.

PERCY MAY 06