Small Craft Advisory 46, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1045 AM AST SUN JAN 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAD SURPRISE SNOW EVENT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING WHILE THE
VOLCANO REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET. AVO JUST WENT TO CODE ORANGE. ONE
LOOK AT EITHER 850 MB TEMPERATURE ADVECTION OR THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOWS WARMER MOIST AIR MOVING OVER AN ARCTIC FRONT ALONG THE GULF
COAST. PAHG RADAR SHOWS SNOW BANDS ORIENTED E-W LIKE THE ST PATRICKS
DAY STORM. ALL HERE AGREE THAT THIS IS AN UNUSUAL PATTERN TO GET MORE
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. AN UPPER/SURFACE LOW COMPLEX IS NEAR 50N 165W
THIS MORNING WITH 960 MB AND A WELL DEFINED OCCLUDED FRONT TO AROUND
55N AS PER SATELLITE. THERE LOOKS TO BE A TRIPLE POINT LOW OFF THE
CHARLOTTES LIKE THE PROGS SAID YESTERDAY GUESSING AROUND 996 MB OR SO
AT 18Z. THE 250 MB JET HAS BUCKLED WITH THE MAIN JET AIMED AT
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE FLOW BEHIND THE MAIN LOW HAS SET UP A NICE N-NE
FETCH OVER THE BERING SEA AND GIVING THE PRIBILOFS A BLIZZARD. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 170E THIS MORNING SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE.

AER FORECASTS - THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE
CONFIGURATION OF THE GULF LOWS INTO MONDAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY.
ALL EXCEPT THE UKMET MOVE A LOW IN THE 970S TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES
BY MON AFTERNOON WITH SOME GRADIENT REMAINING ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND BRING THIS LOW INTO THE PANHANDLE 12Z TUE. THIS LEAVES A
TROF OFF THE N GULF COAST. THEN THE MODELS DIVERGE AS TO WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW ENDS UP ON TUE. WE WILL KEEP SOME COLD AIR INLAND BUT
WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WILL CONFINE PRECIP TO HOMER AND
THE ONSHORE FLOW AT KODIAK ON MON.

ALU FORECASTS - THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT A N-NE FETCH OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL MON NIGHT. THE
BLIZZARD WILL LAST AT LEAST INTO TONIGHT FOR THE PRIBS AND LOOK FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS THERE AND ALL AROUND THE BERING SEA. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REACH NEAR 170W BY 00Z TUE BUT A SIGNIFICANT FRONT
WILL MOVE UP TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY 00Z TUE AS PER THE GFS-190.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195.
MARINE...STORM 170 172. HVY FRZ SPRAY 140 160 176 179.
         GALES 120 130 132 138 140 150 160 165 171 175 176 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC JAN 06