Small Craft Advisory 45, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
530 PM AST SAT JAN 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AUGUSTINE VOLCANO IS THE BIG FOCUS IN OPERATIONS TODAY BUT ONE SHOULD
ALSO CONSIDER THE MORNING FOG TODAY AND A FLOW REGIME CHANGE SUN
NIGHT. AS OF 18Z THIS MORNING THE LAST ERUPTION WAS AROUND 0930Z AND
ASHFALL IS PROBABLY NOT OCCURING OVER LAND NOW. ANY HIGH ASH WOULD BE
CAUGHT UP IN WESTERLIES ALOFT. THIS IS DUE TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WITH THE AXIS ROUGHLY OVER KODIAK ISLAND THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS INTO BRISTOL BAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND
THIS MORNING WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST NEAR CORDOVA. DENSE FOG AROUND COOK
INLET IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW IN THE 960S WELL
SW OF PASD MOVES TOWARD THE NE. A 981 SURFACE LOW CENTER IS AROUND
KISKA WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE TOWARD SHEMYA.

AER FORECASTS - THE 12Z RUN MODELS ARE NOT IN PRECISE AGREEMENT AS TO
WHERE THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW WILL GO...BUT ALL INSIST THAT THIS
WILL INCREASE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS DOWN COOK INLET INTO
SHELIKOF STRAIT FOR CERTAIN GALES THERE TOMORROW. AS SOON AS THIS
KICKS IN WE ARE DONE WITH ANY FOG. THIS SETS UP A LONG EASTERLY FETCH
IN THE MARINE AREAS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF. BY 00Z
MON THE UPPER RIDGE IS ALL ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND AS THE
RIDGE MOVES FURTHER NE...ANY ERUPTION TO HIGH LEVELS WOULD FIRST BE
DIRECTED TOWARD THE WEST. AFTER THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE STRUCTURE
OF THE GULF LOW COMPLEX ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS PER THE ENSEMBLES.

ALU FORECASTS - IN SPITE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE GULF THE EASTERLY
FETCH IN THE BERING WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTH BY SUN NIGHT AS SOME
SORT OF LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF. THIS WOULD BE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE
SW COAST. LOOK FOR A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 180 BY 06Z MON AS PER ALL
MODELS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WELL SE OF KAMCHATKA. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME WIND TO THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG 101 ENDING AT NOON.
MARINE...STORM 155 176. HVY FRZ SPRAY 160.
         GALES 120 130 132 138 140 150 170 171 175 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC JAN 06