Small Craft Advisory 424, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT FRI MAY 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...YET ANOTHER COLD TROUGH ALOFT IS OVER THE BERING SEA
AND CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM IS AND WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

AT THE SURFACE...A 980 MB LOW IN BRISTOL BAY IS MOVING TOWARD TOGIAK
AND WILL MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. IT WILL THEN MOVE NORTH OF BETHEL AND
WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE A NEW LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST
OF SHEMYA ON SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS TO NEAR COLD BAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THESE LOWS.

A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING AND THEN
MOVE TO MIDDLETON ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL HELP DIMINISH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST BUT WILL KEEP THE
RAIN IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THIS MORNINGS RUN. THE WFR AND GFS
LOOK TO DO A GOOD JOB WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. GFS AND ETA ARE IN LOCKSTEP WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THE BRISTOL BAY LOW THROUGH SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 155.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 111.

MAY 06