Small Craft Advisory 419, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT FRI MAY 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING
WITH A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND BRISTOL BAY. A STRONG
JET IS TAKING THE GREAT CIRCLE ROUTE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...REMAINING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 N. RIDGES ARE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND WEST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE A LOW IS OVER BRISTOL BAY AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
IS MOVING ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AKPEN. A SECOND LOW IS SOUTH OF ATKA WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE BRISTOL BAY LOW. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. IN THE EAST..THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS
MERGE INTO AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SLOWLY MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THE ATKA LOW MERGES WITH THE BRISTOL BAY LOW TODAY. A NEW LOW FORMS
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND SAT MORNING NEAR THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
JETMAX MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. THIS LOW REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN GULF
BEFORE WEAKENING INTO A TROUGH SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE GULF SUN NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH MON.

IN THE WEST THE BRISTOL BAY LOW MOVES INLAND TONIGHT AND PERSISTS
OVER WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE SAME
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RACES ACROSS THE BERING
AND ALEUTIANS SAT THROUGH SUN. ON SAT AFTERNOON A NORTH PACIFIC LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE ALONG 50N JUST SOUTH OF THE CHAIN...REACHING THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS MON AND THE AKPEN TUE. AS THIS LOW MOVES
EAST...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN BERING.

IN THE EAST...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE KENAI AND THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND SUSITNA VALLEY TODAY...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY ON LEEWARD SLOPES AND THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER THE FRONTS MERGE AND MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...DOWNSLOPING WILL DIMINISH AND SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATER ON SAT...WHILE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS STEADY
RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS THROUGH SUN. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE
AREA MON BENEATH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. THIS ENDS LATER MON AS THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW BRINGS ONSHORE FLOW BACK INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST
THROUGH TUE.

IN THE WEST...RAIN AND SNOW WILL AFFECT WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND BENEATH THE BRISTOL BAY LOW. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE BERING WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE WEST INTO SAT.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BERING RIDGE AS IT RACES ACROSS
THE CHAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUN. THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE ISLANDS SAT NIGHT AND SUN BEFORE SHOWERY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS
UP FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS MAY 06