Small Craft Advisory 417, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT THU MAY 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...JET STREAM IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE PICTURE RUNNING WEST
TO EAST AROUND 45N. THE JET WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE POSITIONING OF THE JET WILL ALSO HELP TO
KEEP A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS NOT AS COLD AS THE ONES WE SAW LAST WEEK
BUT IT WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE COOL SIDE AND HELP ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS IT KEEPS THE ATMOSPHERE MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE.

AT THE SURFACE THE ANCHOR LOW IS SOUTH OF ADAK BUT THIS LOW WILL GIVE
WAY TO A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT NORTHWEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR TONIGHT. THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AND
THEN COME ONSHORE NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM SATURDAY.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT A LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH OF SEWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES OF SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR AREAS IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA AREA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AHEAD OF THE LOW TRACK.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN COLD AIR OVER THE BERING
SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAY 06