Small Craft Advisory 24, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST SAT JAN 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS COME
ASHORE IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND IS BRINGING SNOW...MIXED WITH A
LITTLE RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THOSE AREAS. THIS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORT WAVE WEAKENS AND
MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY THE JET STREAM REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT BEAR WATCHING ON
TODAYS MAP. THE FIRST IS THE LOW ENTERING THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL BE PERSISTENT WITH BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO AREAS ALONG THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE SECOND IS THE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE UPPER LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET STREAM MAX THAT IS SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE JET BUT WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR
APART BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THE JET MAX MOVES EAST OF IT. MODELS ARE
INCONSISTENT AS TO WHERE THEY WANT TO MOVE THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. AS OF NOW THE UKMET SOLUTION - WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE ETA -
LOOKS MORE REASONABLE THAN THE GFS SOLUTION BY THE TIME WE GET TO
MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE CURRENT FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 06