Small Craft Advisory 22, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST FRI JAN 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION. ANCHORAGE AND
JUNEAU WILL GO WITH THE ETA MODEL OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE
WEST DOMAIN WILL USE THE GFS.

CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE COOK
INLET, THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND KODIAK ISLAND MOVING WEST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND.

UPPER AIR...THE 300 MB SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF
50N. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE. THE STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF 50N LATITUDE THEN VEER NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE FELT ALONG ALEUTIANS, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE MARINE FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 06