Small Craft Advisory 235, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SUN MAR 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN
THE HANDLING OF THE MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ETA SEEMS TO
DEAL WITH THE THIS LOW BETTER BY HOLDING IT BACK IN THE GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT. WE GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ETA IN THE EAST AND THE GFS OUT
WEST.

THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHCENTRAL ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND FORM A
CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA BY THIS EVENING. A SECOND
UPPER RIDGE WILL START BUILDING TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND
BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED COLD DRY AIR OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN DOMAIN.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE ALCAN
BOARDER ALONG WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
PRODUCING SOME STRONG WINDS MAINLY THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER OUT INTO
THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MAIN LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AND MOVE
NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE NEAR RUSSIA BY MONDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT IS ALL BUT WASHED OUT AS IT STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COAST THIS MORNING PRODUCING SOME SNOW IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
BRISTOL BAY ZONES.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER MOST AREAS
BY TONIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 138 176 185.

KB MAR 06