Small Craft Advisory 229, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST THU MAR 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE BERING SEA.

UPPER AIR...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL BERING SEA
WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE CENTRAL INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
300 MB JET MOVE ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT, SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI
PENINSULA FRIDAY AND THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL EXTEND EAST AND DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW OVER THE OFF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA IS SUPPORTED BY A COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND THE JET STREAM MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED WILL COINCIDE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE JET TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

A MODERATE LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE BERING SEA AND DEEPEN BY 30 MB FRIDAY NIGHT THEN WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND WEAKEN THROUGH
SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD INTO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA WATERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW AREAS OF STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLAND WATERS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST GALE
FORCE WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL DEVELOP WESTERN
ALEUTIANS FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES 131, 135 AND 171.
MARINE...STORM AREAS 170, 179.
         GALE AREAS 120, 121, 125, 138, 165, 171, 172, 175,
               180, 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

*** MAR 06