Small Craft Advisory 221, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
415 AM AST TUE MAR 07 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AS WELL AS IN THE ALEUTIANS. EXPECT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LOW IN THE GULF DISSIPATES LATER IN
THE DAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM SEWARD
TO TALKEETNA BEFORE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A SECOND LOW MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND STEALS THE ENERGY. THE MAIN STORY IN THE
EAST IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH MAINLAND AK AND THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING THROUGH MIDWEEK FROM SHELIKOF
STRAIT TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF. COLD AIR WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY
DOWN THE KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANY
WARMING BEGINS TO OCCUR AGAIN. WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT EXPECT
STORM FORCE WINDS TO BLOW THROUGH THE BARRENS AND THE EAST SIDE OF
KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH GAPS. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN NEAR SEWARD BY WED INCLUDING RESURRECTION
BAY.

LOOK FOR FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA AND INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. AUGUSTINE HAS ALSO INCREASED
ITS ACTIVITY SO ASHFALL ADVISORIES FOR THE AFFECTED MARINE ZONES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUT WEST..SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY IN THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE PRIBILOFS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. THE MAIN STORY IS
THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY INTO THE
PRIBILOFS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY TUE NIGHT. IT WILL BRING GALES AND
RAIN AND SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM UNALASKA WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 138 150 155 170 171 172 175 176 185
      ...STORM 130 132
      ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 130 132 138 140 141 165 185
      ...ASHFALL ADVISORY 130 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW MAR 06