Small Craft Advisory 213, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN MAR 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...

LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
STIL TRYING TO GET A HANDLE. IN THE SHORT TERM THE DOMINATING REX
BLOCK CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN OVER EASTER EUROPE. BUT GFS NOW SEEMS
TO BE TRYING TO ESTABLISH A DOMINANT 2 WAVE WITH ONE WAVE ANCHORED
NEAR THE DATELINE. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE 3 TO 4 WAVE SIGNALED
YESTERDAY. 2 WAVE IS A VERY UNSTABLE PATTERN AND I REMAIN SKEPTICAL.
I PREFER THE MORE STABLE 3 TO 4 WAVE PATTERN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS UNTIL
THE GFS DEMONSTRATES THIS UNSTABLE SOLUTION IS CORRECT. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT I AM LEANING TOWARD THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ALASKA.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE BERING SEA LOW HAS LIFTED AND FILLED ABOUT AS
THOUGHT. NORTHWEST DOMINATES THE ENTIRE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUBSTANTIATES THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OVER THE COMING 12 TO 18
HOURS. LACK OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALSO EVIDENT. THIS IS FURTHER
MITIGATED WITH THE MEAN SURFACE WIND VECTOR RELATIVELY PARALLEL TO
THE ICE EDGE. HOWEVER SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
RIDGE SETTLES IN MONDAY MORNING.

LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.
LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS JIBES WITH MESO DATA SETS AND CHANNEL 3
SATELLITE DATA. SNOW CONTINUES ALONG SOUTHERN HALF OF KENAI PENINSULA
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH
SUCH THAT RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW ONLY AT THE GULF FACING COASTAL
STATIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD ADVECTION BEGINS. SNOW STILL
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE ANCHORAGE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUND MONDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL CUT OFF
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CAS MAR 06