Gale Warning 248, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 070942 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1245 AM AST TUE MAR 7 2006

UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND ZONES 130 AND 140

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
AUGUSTINE VOLCANO IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE. A 996 MB LOW 100 NM EAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO NEAR SEWARD MON NIGHT AND THEN
DISSIPATE TUE EVENING. A 991 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK MON
NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 125 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AND STRENGTHEN TO 962 MB
TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-071500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST MON MAR 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-071500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST MON MAR 6 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO
VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS INCREASING TO N 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-071500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
415 PM AST MON MAR 6 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 
10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS INCREASING TO NE 20 KT. 
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-071500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST MON MAR 6 2006

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO 
VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-071500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
1245 AM AST TUE MAR 7 2006

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...VOLCANIC ASHFALL ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 13 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 14 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 
SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-071500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
445 PM AST MON MAR 6 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...


.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 15 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-071500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST MON MAR 6 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 
SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-071500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
1245 AM AST TUE MAR 7 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...VOLCANIC ASHFALL ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 10 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-071500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST MON MAR 6 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST MON MAR 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...TODAYS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL BUT TIGHTLY
WOUND LOW SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND DRIFT TO NEAR SEWARD BEFORE IT DISSIPATES TUESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK LOW WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS IS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE NEAR BRISTOL BAY
TUE MORNING.
THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE HOWEVER IS THE STRONG JET THAT EXTENDS
FROM 40N 170W AND HEADS NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. THIS JET IS RIDING UP A LARGE RIDGE IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND IS BEING SQUEEZED ON THE NORTHWEST BY COLD AIR.
THIS JET WILL FLATTEN OUT BY WEDNESDAY AS IT HELPS TO DEVELOP A
SIGNIFICANT LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOW WILL BECOME THE MAJOR WEATHER FOCUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE COLD
ADVECTION TO THE WEST OF THIS LOW WILL ENHANCE THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCED BY IT.

ALSO OF NOTE IS A MODERATE LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KAMCHATKA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A NEW LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ALONG THE WEATHER FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES TO
ADDRESS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 155 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...130 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 06