Small Craft Advisory 194, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...
300 MB CHART THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HAS
AMPLIFIED YESTERDAY.  A 160KT JET IS MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE LOW AND THEN STEER THE PATTERN TO
THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  TO THE WEST A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED PLENTY OF WARM AIR INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING.  THIS BRINGS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST
COAST.  AS THE PATTERN MOVES EASTWARD THE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN SO
WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

OUT WEST...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP CALM CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
AND THE COLDER AIR FLOWING IN FROM RUSSIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA.  WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.
IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALREADY CHANGED THE
PRECIP TO RAIN.  THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
AND SNOW AND STRONG WINDS BUT WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

IN THE EAST...THIS MORNING STRONG WINDS ARE THE CONCERN OUT OF
CHANNELED AREAS AS THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE HIGH AND THE LOW CREATES
A TIGHTENED GRADIENT.  GUSTY WINDS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES SHOULD
CAUSE GALES IN THE MARINES.  AS THE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LESSEN.  EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TODAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING.
BOTH INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED AGAINST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. ETA
WAS USED IN THE EAST AND GFS IN THE WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 121 130 132 150 155 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180 185

         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 150 160 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEW FEB 06