Gale Warning 207, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 010015
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 984 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA WEAKENS TO 1000 MB THURSDAY
MORNING AS IT MOVES OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLAND. A 988 MB LOW NEAR SAND POINT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MOVES TO
200 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 994 MB. A
WEATHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF ON THURSDAY.
$$

PKZ120-011500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT THROUGH NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH
NORTHERN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-011500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
HIGHER GUSTS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. 
SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NORTH WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-011500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. HIGHER THROUGH NORTHERN BAYS 
AND PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH NORTHERN BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-011500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT GUSTING TO 45 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-011500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-011500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-011500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-011500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-011500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...
300 MB CHART THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HAS
AMPLIFIED YESTERDAY.  A 160KT JET IS MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE LOW AND THEN STEER THE PATTERN TO
THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  TO THE WEST A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED PLENTY OF WARM AIR INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING.  THIS BRINGS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST
COAST.  AS THE PATTERN MOVES EASTWARD THE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN SO
WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

OUT WEST...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP CALM CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
AND THE COLDER AIR FLOWING IN FROM RUSSIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA.  WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.
IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALREADY CHANGED THE
PRECIP TO RAIN.  THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
AND SNOW AND STRONG WINDS BUT WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

IN THE EAST...THIS MORNING STRONG WINDS ARE THE CONCERN OUT OF
CHANNELED AREAS AS THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE HIGH AND THE LOW CREATES
A TIGHTENED GRADIENT.  GUSTY WINDS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES SHOULD
CAUSE GALES IN THE MARINES.  AS THE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LESSEN.  EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TODAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING.
BOTH INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED AGAINST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. ETA
WAS USED IN THE EAST AND GFS IN THE WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 121 130 132 150 155 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180 185

         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 150 160 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEW FEB 06