Small Craft Advisory 150, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST WED FEB 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE ETA MODEL HANDLES THE WAVE
BETTER THAN THE GFS, THOUGH THE GFS IS PREFERRED IN THE WESTERN
DOMAIN OVER THE ETA MODEL.

UPPER AIR...A 500 MB SHORT WAVE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN ALASKA
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THEN REBUILD BACK OVER
CENTRAL ALASKA BEHIND IT.

AT SURFACE...THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALONG
THE BERING SEA COAST WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR TONIGHT. SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI PENINSULA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AND THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NOT MUCH SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

A LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF ADAK
THURSDAY THEN SWING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA FRIDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING SEA
FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE MARINE FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM FEB 06