Small Craft Advisory 1129, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG ZONAL JET STREAM ALONG 40 NORTH WILL PERSIST. THE MASSIVE
DEEP LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
BE THE DOMINANT FORCE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
PERSISTING PATTERN OF FRONTAL BANDS ROTATING NORTH INTO THE GULF
COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PATTERN OF LOWS MOVING TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG THE JET
STREAM WILL PERSIST.

IN THE EAST THE MASSIVE LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA
WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT
THE NORTH TO EAST WIND ALONG THE GULF COAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS
THIS LOW DISSIPATES ALONG THE GULF COAST. A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST.
WE EXPECT THIS TO PUSH MOISTURE FROM THE EAST INTO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN CLEARING
CONDITIONS IN THE BASIN WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ARES OF FOG. MORE
IMPORTANTLY THE CONTINUED PUSH OF WARM AIR WILL PERSIST INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND THUS EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN LIQUID
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW FURTHER INLAND IN THE
COLDER AIR NEARER THE ALASKA RANGE. THE THREAT OF PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN WILL PERSIST THE VALLEYS TONIGHT DUE TO THE BRIEF CLEARING
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN SOME TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK TONIGHT.

IN THE WEST THE LOW NOW NEAR ADAK WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST BECOMING THE
DOMINANT SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA.

THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THIS
SYSTEM AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH REGARD TO
THE STORMS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT PART WAYS
FRIDAY WITH TEH MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. HOWEVER, THE OVERAL PICTURE OF
WARMER WETTER CONDITONS FOR THE ALEUTIANS TO THE MAINLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 170 171 172 175 185 350 410.

SAM DEC 06