Gale Warning 997, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 082131 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI DEC 8 2006

UPDATED ZONES 125 AND 129

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-090300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 955 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY MOVES TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF
CHIGNIK AT 966 MB BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF THIS LOW ON FRIDAY. A 965 MB
LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF 500 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC ON SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
SUNDAY NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-090300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST FRI DEC 8 2006

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-090300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST FRI DEC 8 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. SEAS 3 FT
EXCEPT 6 FT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD IN THE
EVENING THEN S WIND 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT EXCEPT 6 FT SOUTH OF
CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-090300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1230 PM AST FRI DEC 8 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-090300-
PASSAGE CANAL
1230 PM AST FRI DEC 8 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-090300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST FRI DEC 8 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-090300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST FRI DEC 8 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-090300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST FRI DEC 8 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS WITH RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-090300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST FRI DEC 8 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. WIND INCREASING TO E 25 KT IN THE MORNING SOUTH
OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-090300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST FRI DEC 8 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG ZONAL JET STREAM ALONG 40 NORTH WILL PERSIST. THE MASSIVE
DEEP LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
BE THE DOMINANT FORCE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
PERSISTING PATTERN OF FRONTAL BANDS ROTATING NORTH INTO THE GULF
COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PATTERN OF LOWS MOVING TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG THE JET
STREAM WILL PERSIST.

IN THE EAST THE MASSIVE LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA
WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT
THE NORTH TO EAST WIND ALONG THE GULF COAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS
THIS LOW DISSIPATES ALONG THE GULF COAST. A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST.
WE EXPECT THIS TO PUSH MOISTURE FROM THE EAST INTO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN CLEARING
CONDITIONS IN THE BASIN WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ARES OF FOG. MORE
IMPORTANTLY THE CONTINUED PUSH OF WARM AIR WILL PERSIST INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND THUS EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN LIQUID
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW FURTHER INLAND IN THE
COLDER AIR NEARER THE ALASKA RANGE. THE THREAT OF PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN WILL PERSIST THE VALLEYS TONIGHT DUE TO THE BRIEF CLEARING
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN SOME TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK TONIGHT.

IN THE WEST THE LOW NOW NEAR ADAK WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST BECOMING THE
DOMINANT SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA.

THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THIS
SYSTEM AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH REGARD TO
THE STORMS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT PART WAYS
FRIDAY WITH TEH MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. HOWEVER, THE OVERAL PICTURE OF
WARMER WETTER CONDITONS FOR THE ALEUTIANS TO THE MAINLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 170 171 172 175 185 350 410.

SAM DEC 06