Small Craft Advisory 1122, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
513 AM AST MON DEC 4 2006

UPDATED WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY.

.DISCUSSION...

...SUMMARY...
MAIN DRIVER IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS A VERY STRONG ZONAL JET AROUND
40N. THIS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE JET STREAM...GRAZING THE
ALEUTIANS...AND CURLING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. MAINLAND
ALASKA WILL REMAIN MILD AND WET...WHILE THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL...WITH SHOTS OF RAIN
AND SNOW AS THE LOWS PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

...MODELS...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH
ABOUT WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CHAOS ENSUES REGARDING THE PATH OF THE
LOWS RIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
JET. MODELS AGREE ON THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTING...HOWEVER.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF ATKA THIS MORNING GRADUALLY WEAKENING TODAY AS IT
DRIFTS EAST...WITH A NEW LOW BECOMING THE DOMINANT LOW A BIT TO THE
EAST OF THE ORIGINAL LOW LATER TONIGHT SOUTH OF SAND POINT. A BIT
CONCERNED AT THE EVOLUTION OF THESE LOWS...HOWEVER...AS THE SECOND
LOW MENTIONED ABOVE SEEMS TO BE STRENGTHENING FASTER THIS MORNING
AND IS FURTHER EAST THAN THE MODELS INDICATE. THIS SECOND LOW...ONCE
IT BECOMES THE DOMINANT LOW...WILL THEN DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST.
SHORTWAVES AND FRONTS WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS LARGE LOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

...SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN STORE TODAY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE LOW
AROUND THE NORTH END OF KODIAK ISLAND DISSIPATES AND MOVES INLAND
NEAR CAPE DOUGLAS. THERE WILL STILL BE SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST...BUT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT PENETRATE INLAND MUCH. THE
REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORTLIVED...AS ANOTHER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ALASKA COAST WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD...BRINGING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
TO THE GULF COAST FOR TUESDAY. THEN A STRONG WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW SOUTH OF SAND POINT MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL TUESDAY
NIGHT...ENHANCING WINDS AND PRECIPITATION MORE...AND LIKELY CHANGING
MOST AREAS TO RAIN MUCH LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...AS WARM AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. DETAILS ARE HARD TO DISCERN AFTER WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT CERTAINLY MOIST...MILD ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST.

...SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FORECAST...
STEADY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL THIS MORNING FROM DILLINGHAM EAST TO
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...THOUGH INTENSITIES ARE GRADUALLY
DECREASING...BUT NOT BEFORE SNOW TOTALS AROUND A FOOT HAVE FALLEN AT
PLACES SUCH AS KING SALMON. THE SNOW WILL FINALLY TAPER OFF LATER
TODAY AS A THE DRIER AIR PRESENTLY WORKING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ROTATES
WEST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL
ROTATE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY
RAIN...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BEING FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE.

...ALEUTIAN/BERING SEA FORECAST...
A STRONG LOW SOUTH OF ATKA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN
TO THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY...AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ON ITS BACK SIDE FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INCLUDING SHEMYA. THIS
LOW...AND A SERIES OF LOWS TO FOLLOW...WILL IMPACT THE ALEUTIANS AND
MAINLY SOUTHERN BERING SEA FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THESE LOW PRESSURES
WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF A STRONG JET STREAM AROUND
40N. PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS MAINLY RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW AT
TIMES...FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH MAINLY SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE ENTIRE ALEUTIANS
WITH EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS...BECAUSE IF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
SNOW...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR...MUCH LIKE WHAT SHEMYA IS
GETTING THIS MORNING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 191.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 172 AND 175.
         GALE WARNING 120 130 132 138 150 155 170 171 176 179 350
         410.

FOISY DEC 06