Small Craft Advisory 1097, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...A MODERATE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS THE FOCUS OF
THE WEATHER IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM HAS GOOD
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS CAN BE SEEN BY THE STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. THE UPPER SUPPORT STARTS JUST NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
AND FEEDS IN THIS GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM. THIS SUPPORT WILL MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND THEREFORE THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND
WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS IT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW TO THE NORTH GULF COAST. A BLIZZARD WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 135 WHICH INCLUDES MONTAGUE AND HINCHINBROOK
ISLANDS AS WELL AS CORDOVA. THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS SNOW MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THE WARM AIR IN THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE DEFLECTED EAST OF THE CORDOVA AREA AND KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE AFOREMENTIONED PLACES SNOW. THOMPSON PASS AND
THE WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREAS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO SEE SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM IN THE WEST HAS MOVED SOUTH OF KISKA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN IT WITH
GOOD WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT AND INTENSE COLD ADVECTION ON THE
BACK SIDE OF IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY. BIG ISSUE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. AS
THIS LOW MOVES EASTWARD TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB LEVEL ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP UP TO 20 CELSIUS IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD TOMORROW NIGHT. A HIGH
WIND WATCH WILL THEREFORE BE ISSUED FOR ZONE 187 FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ZONE 185...DUTCH HARBOR AREA...FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL SEE STRONG WINDS AS WELL BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH.

GFS IS ONCE AGAIN THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 135. HIGH WIND WATCH 185 187.
MARINE...GALE 121 125 155 165 171 175 176 185.
         STORM 120 130 132 170 172 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 06