Gale Warning 920, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 300011
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED NOV 29 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 990 MB LOW 225 NM WEST OF HYDABURG WILL MOVE ONSHORE
NEAR HYDABURG LATE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE. A 993 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTH OF
SAND POINT THU MORNING WILL MOVE TO 60 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK FRI
MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-301500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST WED NOV 29 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-301500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST WED NOV 29 2006

.TONIGHT...NORTH WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO N 10 BY MORNING. SEAS 3
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-301500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST WED NOV 29 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-301500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST WED NOV 29 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO W 15 KT BY MORNING. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-301500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST WED NOV 29 2006

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-301500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST WED NOV 29 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-301500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST WED NOV 29 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-301500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST WED NOV 29 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NORTH WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-301500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST WED NOV 29 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.THU...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED NOV 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...

GFS...NAM...AND UKMET IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER OUT THROUGH
60 HOURS BUT THERE IS LITTLE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS. GFS IS
PREFERRED MODEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BERING...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW BEYOND 96 HOURS.

AT 500 MB THERE ARE THREE MAIN FEATURES.
1...A SMALL CUT OF CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO CANADA.
2...A STRONG LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN RUSSIA. W-SW UPPER LEVEL
STEERING FLOW WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS OVER THE BERING
SEA.
3...A TRANSIENT RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY AND
MOVES INTO WESTERN CANADA FRIDAY.

WEST OF 165W...
IMPRESSIVE 981 MB LOW NEAR ATKA HAS PLENTY OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG
ITS FRONTSIDE AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE. RAIN...HEAVY
AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST
ALONG THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TURN QUICKLY TO SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
WARNING.

165W TO 155W...CONFIDENCE LOWEST FOR THIS REGION.
OOZ WED RUN OF GFS MOVES THE LOW NEAR ATKA TO 45 NM SOUTH OF MEKORYUK
BY WED EVENING AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA BY THU EVENING.
IN COMPARISON...YESTERDAYS GFS WANTED TO MOVE IT INTO BRISTOL BAY.
LEFT THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS A WATCH.
ALSO A NEW 991 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT APPROX
90 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT
CAPTURING THIS FEATURE WELL...EXACT POSITION WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT
WIND AND PRECIP FORECAST FOR ALASKA PENINSULA TOMORROW.

EAST OF 155W...
THE 989 MB LOW IN NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA...REFLECTION OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE...IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF RAPDIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD. NOT MUCH
PRECIP AFTER ALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. DRY OFF CONTINENT FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
CHANNELED AREAS OF THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIP BEGINNING TOMORROW
MORNING AS MAJOR SYSTEM OUT WEST APPROACHES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187
         HIGH WIND WATCH 185
MARINE...GALE 132 150 155 160 165 171 175 176 179 180 185
         STORM 170 172
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB NOV 06