Small Craft Advisory 1092, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST MON NOV 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN
MOST OF THE MONTH HAS NOW MOVED EASTWARD INTO CANADA. A FRONT
EXTENDING OUT OF A LOW IN EASTERN RUSSIA HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN
ALASKA BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST AREAS AND RAIN TO SOME OF THE COASTAL
AREAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OUT OF A LOW IN EASTERN RUSSIA AND
DROPS OVER THE BERING SEA TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD A NEW CUT OFF LOW WILL
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND LATE TUESDAY. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
LINKED TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE INTO THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA
TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS SET UP WITH A CUT OFF LOW IN
THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL MOST LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY SNOW FROM
OCCURRING IN THE COOK INLET AREA.
THIS LOW WILL GIVE WAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO A TRANSIENT RIDGE THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AREA.

IN THE WEST THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER DAY UNTIL A NEW LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND AROUND 975 MB THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO A GOOD AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION ON THE FRONT END OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACHING LOW IN THE WEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN THE NAM. WITH THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR IN THE FRONT OF
THE SYSTEM COMPARED WITH THE STRONG DOSE OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT...IT
MAKE SENSE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE NAM ADVERTISES
AND POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS THE GFS IS SHOWING.
THERE IS NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH THE LOW HEADING
INTO THE GULF. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND MOVES THE SYSTEM FURTHER
TO THE EAST FASTER. THE GFS HAS BEEN DOING BETTER WITH HANDLING
SYSTEMS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH SO WE WILL GO MORE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION IN THE FORECASTS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...
MARINE...GALE 125 130 132 172 175.
         STORM 120.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 06