Gale Warning 911, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN NOV 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN
THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
A CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND IS THE PREFERRED MODEL IN THE GULF.

THE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
ALEUTIANS TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD IS
FAIRLY LOW OVER THE BERING SEA.

UPPER AIR...
THE GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EAST IN TO THE EASTERN GULF...SOUTHEAST ALASKA...AND THE
YUKON TERRITORY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING EAST
THROUGH THE PRIBILOFS AND ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY AND INTO BRISTOL
BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.

NEAR THE SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN...
A WEATHER FRONT CURRENTLY OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE THROUGH KODIAK
ISLAND AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING THEN WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA  THEN DISSIPATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

SNOW AND STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER KODIAK ISLAND
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE LOWER
KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SPREAD UP INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MONDAY. THE SNOW WILL BECOME SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PACIFIC AND STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY WHICH WILL
SPREAD INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WEST DOMAIN...
THE WEATHER FRONT SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA MONDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITION OVER ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST
SHOULD END THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL TO FALL OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AND
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 155.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ZONE 161.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 132 150 160.

NM NOV 06