Small Craft Advisory 1068, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN NOV 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM. MODEL
ENSEMBLES SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MEMBERS...SO CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW MUCH BEYOND 72 HOURS.

.UPPER AIR...IN SHORT TERM LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL SHIFT
EAST AND WEAKEN...HOWEVER BY WED NIGHT/THU LONG WAVE IS REESTABLISHED
OVER THE THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND/GULF OF ALASKA. RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING DOES SHIFT EAST...BUT COLD AIR TO EAST HALTS ITS EAST MOVEMENT
TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN SHOWED SW FLOW SETTING
UP OVER THE MAINLAND BY WEEKS END WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 145W WITH
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CURRENT PATTERN
UNTIL THERE ARE CLEAR INDICATORS OF PATTERN SHIFT.

.SURFACE EAST...COLD ADVECTION INTO THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN PRESSURE
TROUGH THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW CENTER WHICH FORMS NEAR MIDDLETON
ISLAND SHOULD START SLOW SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT UNDER UPPER CENTER. THIS
IN TURN SHOULD REDUCE PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE MAINLAND AND
SUPPORTING N-NE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD WEAKEN. OVERALL WINDS IN WARNING
AREAS SHOULD PEAK TODAY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR
NOW WILL HOLD WARNING UP UNTIL MON MORNING AND MONITOR. IN GENERAL
EXPECT PERIODS OF BRISK GAP WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHCENTRAL
WITH GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
WEEK.

.SURFACE WEST...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA MAY BRING A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW TO SW AK TONIGHT. WINDS OVER
THE AK PEN...BRISTOL BAY WILL INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH JET
SUPPORT...STRONGEST EAST OF COLD BAY. EXPECT WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY MON. RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST. EXPECT LOW COMPLEX TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT/TUE..SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN AND BRISK
EASTERLY WINDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ZONE 111 131 135. HIGH WIND WARNING
ENDING ZONE 145.
MARINE...STORM 150
         GALE 121, 130, 132, 138, 140, 155, 160, 172, 175, 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...120, 121, 125, 129, 130, 138, 140,
           141

RMC NOV 06