Small Craft Advisory 1069, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 211202
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A LOW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 1010 MB LOW CENTER WILL DEVELOP 95 NM EAST 
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND TUE EVENING THEN MOVE TO NEAR THE QUEEN 
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY WED NIGHT AT 1002 MB. 
$$

PKZ120-220300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER 
DELTA. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF THE 
COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-220300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-220300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS 
AND PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-220300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-220300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH KENNEDY AND 
STEVENSON ENTRANCES. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH 
KENNEDY AND STEVENSON ENTRANCES. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-220300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-220300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NORTH END OF STRAIT. 
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NORTH END 
OF STRAIT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-220300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-220300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN NOV 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM. MODEL
ENSEMBLES SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MEMBERS...SO CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW MUCH BEYOND 72 HOURS.

.UPPER AIR...IN SHORT TERM LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL SHIFT
EAST AND WEAKEN...HOWEVER BY WED NIGHT/THU LONG WAVE IS REESTABLISHED
OVER THE THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND/GULF OF ALASKA. RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING DOES SHIFT EAST...BUT COLD AIR TO EAST HALTS ITS EAST MOVEMENT
TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN SHOWED SW FLOW SETTING
UP OVER THE MAINLAND BY WEEKS END WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 145W WITH
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CURRENT PATTERN
UNTIL THERE ARE CLEAR INDICATORS OF PATTERN SHIFT.

.SURFACE EAST...COLD ADVECTION INTO THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN PRESSURE
TROUGH THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW CENTER WHICH FORMS NEAR MIDDLETON
ISLAND SHOULD START SLOW SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT UNDER UPPER CENTER. THIS
IN TURN SHOULD REDUCE PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE MAINLAND AND
SUPPORTING N-NE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD WEAKEN. OVERALL WINDS IN WARNING
AREAS SHOULD PEAK TODAY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR
NOW WILL HOLD WARNING UP UNTIL MON MORNING AND MONITOR. IN GENERAL
EXPECT PERIODS OF BRISK GAP WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHCENTRAL
WITH GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
WEEK.

.SURFACE WEST...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA MAY BRING A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW TO SW AK TONIGHT. WINDS OVER
THE AK PEN...BRISTOL BAY WILL INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH JET
SUPPORT...STRONGEST EAST OF COLD BAY. EXPECT WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY MON. RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST. EXPECT LOW COMPLEX TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT/TUE..SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN AND BRISK
EASTERLY WINDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ZONE 111 131 135. HIGH WIND WARNING
ENDING ZONE 145.
MARINE...STORM 150
         GALE 121, 130, 132, 138, 140, 155, 160, 172, 175, 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...120, 121, 125, 129, 130, 138, 140,
           141

RMC NOV 06