Small Craft Advisory 1032, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST TUE NOV 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL FEATURES WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NAM AND THE DEEPENING STORM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NAM IS WEAKER...15 MB...IN DEVELOPING
THIS LOW COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GFS UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE ALL BEEN
CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF AND
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY FRIDAY MORNING.  PRODUCTS WILL BE
BASED ON THE GFS FOR THIS STRONG LOW.  THE NAM MAINTAINS THE WEAK LOW
NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND IS PREFERRED WITH
THIS LOW OVER THE OTHER MODELS.

UPPER AIR...A LONG WAVE LENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA AND A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS PERSISTENT STRONG
UPPER LEVEL NORTH WINDS FLOWING FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ALL WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS UPPER LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
STORM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LATER THIS WEEK.  ANOTHER UPPER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE ARCTIC OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TO BRISTOL BAY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL PERSIST NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY.  THE CIRCULATION ABOUT THIS LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND AREAS EAST. A MODERATELY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND
ALASKA PENINSULA AND SHOULD BECOME STRONGER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
STRONG AREA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND
BUILD SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY. A WEAK LOW NEAR
UNALASKA WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND DEEPEN TO A STRONG
STORM AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY LATE THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 121 130 132 150 155 350

RHH NOV 06