Gale Warning 865, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST MON NOV 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR...AN UPPER HIGH NORTH OF KAMCHATKA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THURSDAY.  A MODERATE SHORT WAVE
OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER COOK
INLET TUESDAY THEN MOVE TO MIDDLETON ISLAND AND BECOME STATIONARY
WEDNESDAY.  A SECOND STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND CROSS THE
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OVER BRISTOL BAY BY LATE
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH THE MIDDLETON ISLAND LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND SATURDAY.

MODEL COMPARISON...ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
DEEP PACIFIC LOW MOVING ONSHORE NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE MONDAY NIGHT AND
ON THE STATIONARY LOW FORMING SOUTH OF CORDOVA BY TUE MORNING. ALL
MODELS ALSO AGREE WITH THE SOUTHEAST MIGRATION OF A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA.  THE UKMET GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE WEAK LOW MOVING FROM THE WESTERN BERING TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THEN DEEPENING IT TO A STRONG STORM AS IT MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD DIXON ENTRANCE SOUTH OF THE GULF.  THE NAM WEAKENS
THEN LOSES THIS LOW BY 72 HOURS.

SURFACE...A STRONG 966 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL MOVE
ONSHORE NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE MONDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK 992 MB LOW WILL
FORM SOUTH OF CORDOVA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND INCLUDING PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
KODIAK ISLAND BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK WESTERN BERING LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND MOVE
TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY WEDNESDAY THEN DEEPEN TO A STRONG STORM AS
IT APPROACHES DIXON ENTRANCE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN BERING SEA TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATELY
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF
WESTERN ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THE WEEK.
CHANNELED AND GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THE
WEST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...    HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121
             STORM...130
             GALE..350 132

RHH NOV 06