High Wind Watch 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...GFS/NAM INITIALIZATIONS AND TEMP FIELDS OK WITH CENTER
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.UPPER AIR...CENTER OVER THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA WEAKENS THROUGH
FRIDAY. MAINLAND PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES TO OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA FRI
NIGHT. SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH SAT MORNING. GULF PORTION OF TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE
PANHANDLE SAT. RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA MOVES TO OVER THE
WESTERN MAINLAND/EASTERN BERING SEA FRI AFTERNOON.

SURFACE
.EAST...970S LOW JUST NORTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND SLOWLY WEAKENS.
ALTHOUGH CENTER IS STACKED...EXPECT COLD ADVECTION WILL TEND TO HOLD
CENTER A LITTLE DEEPER THEN MODEL FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
EXPECT STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP
STRONG NW WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF WITH GAP WINDS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH TONIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY THREAT WITH COLD
ADVECTION LIKELY OVER WESTERN GULF COASTAL MARINE AREAS/COOK INLET
TONIGHT AND EARLY THU. GRADIENTS WILL RELAX SOME THU AND CONTINUE
TREND THROUGH FRI. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH TODAY...EXPECT MIXED SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT TO SNOW SHOWERS MOST OF THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH COLD
ADVECTION THU. SOUTHCENTRAL AND EAST MAINLAND SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THU. SHOWERS DIMINISHING MOST AREAS FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS
LOW CENTER SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS.

.WEST...BRISK NW WINDS OVER THE AK PEN/BRISTOL BAY SLOWLY WEAKENS THU
AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRI. SAT PIC SHOWS LARGE AREA OF OPEN/CLOSED
CELL CU OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN/CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIAN/AK PEN.
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THESE REGIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THU THEN DIMINISH WITH AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM EAST THU NIGHT/FRI.
MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH NEXT CENTER TO APPROACH THE BERING SEA SPEED UP
NORTH PROGRESSION. WILL TREND TOWARD NEW SOLUTION IN SHORT TERM AND
BLEND INTO CURRENT EXTENDED FOR THIS PACKAGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 130
         GALE 132, 138, 150, 176,
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 06