Gale Warning 814, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT THU OCT 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS STRETCHING DOWN OVER THE MAINLAND THEN SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST NUDGING EAST.
A SURFACE LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND (PWS) IS WEAKENING NEARLY IN
PLACE AS IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING. COLD AIR FUNNELING AROUND THE PWS LOW AND
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST IS CREATING GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF. A RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE
BERING AND BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT CONDITIONS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
WESTERN MAINLAND.

GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO BE TOO WEAK ON THE PWS LOW STRENGTH...NAM TOO
STRONG...AND UKMET JUST ABOUT RIGHT. PREFER GFS SOLUTION IN THE SHORT
TERM HOWEVER THE PATH OF BERING LOW MOVING INLAND FROM YUKON DELTA ON
SUNDAY IS VARIABLE RUN TO RUN WITH ALL MODELS. FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE.

EAST...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING TODAY FROM THE
WEST AS THE PWS LOW WEAKENS AND HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD COMPLETELY PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY
TOMORROW NIGHT WHEN THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF AND
DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE CLEARS SKIES OUT AND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES
TO TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WEST...THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS...BRISTOL BAY AND THE AKPEN WILL
CONTINUE TODAY THEN WEAKEN AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE WESTERN MAINLAND WILL SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS
TODAY BEFORE A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BERING MOVES OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA COAST LATER TONIGHT. A STRONG NORTHPAC LOW WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT TO BRING STORM FORCE WINDS FRIDAY TO
THE MARINE ZONES AND A HIGH WIND WATCH TO THE WESTERN CHAIN. THIS LOW
WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE BERING SLOWLY WEAKENING TO REACH THE YUKON
DELTA BY SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 191
MARINE...STORM 175 176
      ...GALE 130 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR OCT 06