Gale Warning 888, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST FRI NOV 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE STAGNANT PATTERN OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING AND TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES. THE
SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT NEAR THE NORTHERN
COASTS HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY PULL SOUTH. SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN MOSTLY IN
THE GULF BUT ARE SPREADING OUT TO THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND
OVER TO KODIAK. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN BERING CONTINUE TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OVER THE AKPEN. THE
REST OF THE MAINLAND REMAINS GENERALLY CLEAR WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE QUITE WELL IN THE STAGNANT PATTERN. HAVE
USED A BLEND OF BOTH MODELS.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
RELAXING AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING
THE WARNING LEVEL WINDS IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER
DELTA BELOW CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BACK UP SATURDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR AT
LEAST THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR CONTINUED COLD AND
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING MAINLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH CLOUD COVER REACHING OVER TO THE SUSITNA
VALLEY TO HELP MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN FOR THIS
TIME AS WELL. THE NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN STRENGTH TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE GULF LOW WEAKENS. A SYSTEM ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL PUSH SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS STARTING
SATURDAY AND INTO MID NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND WILL
REMAIN DRY AND COLD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW DIMINISHING. THE YUKON DELTA
COASTS COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS
MOISTURE RIDES UP OVER THE RIDGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 135
MARINE...GALE 120 121 130 132 150 155 160 170 171 180
      ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 125 129 130 138 140 141 150 160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR NOV 06