Gale Warning 687, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...A TALE OF THREE LOWS WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN PROCEEDED UP COOK INLET THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IS HEADING INTO
THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING. THIS LOW BROUGHT SOME STRONG WINDS TO
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AS WELL AS AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR THIS LOW HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT PROCEEDS NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA.

THE SECOND LOW IS ONE THAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF AMCHITKA SATURDAY.
THE JET STREAM SUPPORT IS FAVORABLE FOR A QUICKLY DEVELOPING LOW AND
IT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE LOW 980 MBS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PROCEED
EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL MOSTLY AFFECT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
LATE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FEEDS INTO LOW NUMBER THREE.

THE THIRD LOW  WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THE REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON YAGI WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR JAPAN. THIS STORM WILL WEAKEN AS IT DEPARTS THE JAPAN
AREA AND THEN RE-INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD BUT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO EFFECT THE ALEUTIANS AS IT
PASSES. MODELS THEN HAVE IT WEAKENING AGAIN BEFORE HEADING INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THURSDAY.
EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR BEING DIFFICULT FOR THE
MODELS TO HANDLE SO IT BEARS WATCHING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

MODELS...NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
FIRST LOW MENTIONED ABOVE. THE NAM DOES BRING A WEAK LOW INTO COOK
INLET IN THE LEE OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE SAME
GENERAL IDEA FOR THE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MOVING IT A LITTLE FASTER AND KEEPING IT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE NAM AND THIS SOLUTION IS THE PREFERRED ONE AT THIS
TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEP 06