Gale Warning 686, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 221516 AAB
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
715 AM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

UPDATED ZONE 141

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-230200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 983 MB LOW NEAR OVER COOK INLET WILL MOVE INLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SAT. 
$$

PKZ120-230200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-230200-
RESURRECTION BAY
410 AM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-230200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-230200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-230200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON EXCEPT SEAS 9 FT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 8 FT WEST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-230200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-230200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-230200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-230200-
KACHEMAK BAY
715 AM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 222353
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A LOW INLAND WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SAT. 
$$

PKZ120-231400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-231400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-231400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-231400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-231400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 6 FT WEST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 4 FT WEST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-231400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-231400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-231400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-231400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 22 2006

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER AROUND SOUTHERN ALASKA IS DOMINATED BY A
985 MB LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
LOW HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AND WILL DEEPEN A LITTLE MORE THIS EVENING
AS IT MOVES INTO COOL INLET AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
INTERIOR FRIDAY.
THIS LOW HAS GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS EVIDENCED BY THE EXTENSIVE
JET FEEDING INTO IT. AT 250 MB THIS JET COMES OFF OF NORTHERN JAPAN
AND THEN BENDS NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 40N 175W. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
BETWEEN 100 AND 150 KT FROM THAT POINT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AREA. THESE HIGH SPEEDS WILL HELP THE LOW SHEAR APART
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THE MAIN
LOW PROCEED INTO THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH A
SECONDARY LOW FORMING IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA IN THE LEE
OF KODIAK ISLAND.
THIS WILL ALSO BE A GOOD SITUATION FOR A STRONG BARRIER JET TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. MARINE AREA 120 MAY SEE WINDS
NEAR 55 KT ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT IN THIS BARRIER JET.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NEXT LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM IS A
LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS SATURDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN/ALASKA PENINSULA REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE LONG TERM...SUPER TYPHOON YAGI IS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF
JAPAN. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT INTO ALEUTIANS AND
POSSIBLY THE GULF OF ALASKA IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
FORECASTS OF EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE NO RELIABLE THIS FAR OUT BUT
THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL STILL BE A STRONG LOW AS IT ENTERS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A WAYS OUT BUT BEARS WATCHING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 125 130 132 150.
         STORM 120.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEP 06