Gale Warning 54, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST THU JAN 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS
PREFERRED OVER THE WEST DOMAIN. EITHER THE ETA OR GFS WILL WORK OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE THE
BETTER SOLUTION ON SUNDAY.

UPPER AIR...AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA
THROUGH THE COOK INLET AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL BE
PUSHED NORTHEAST INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN BY AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL WEAKEN AND WILL BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER MOVING INTO THE AREA
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE.
EASTERN DOMAIN...THE WEAKENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
GULF SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND END FRIDAY. CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY BUT SHOULD BE
CLEARED OUT BY THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY.

WESTERN DOMAIN...WIND, RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATE WITH THE STROM SYSTEM
OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
DIMINISH FRIDAY. WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PICKUP AGAIN AS THE
NEXT STORM APPROACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY.

AREAS LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT SHOULD BREAK UP SATURDAY AS A NORTHEAST WIND
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 155, 170, 175, 179.
         STORMS 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 06