Gale Warning 459, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 220842 AAA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1240 AM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

UPDATED ZONE 155

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA TUE AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT. A 1003 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SHEMYA MON AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA TUE
AFTERNOON AT 1005 MB. 

$$

PKZ150-221400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-221400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
1240 AM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-221400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-221400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-221400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-221400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-221400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-221400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-221400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING 35 KT TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO
16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-221400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-221400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-221400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 221120
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-230200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA TUE EVENING. A 1006 MB LOW 300 NM
SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA TUE AFTERNOON 
AND DISSIPATE BY WED MORNING. 

$$

PKZ150-230200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-230200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-230200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-230200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-230200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 

$$

PKZ170-230200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-230200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-230200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-230200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-230200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-230200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.

.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-230200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH A LOW JUST
SOUTH OF THE GULF AND ANOTHER LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. WEAK
TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA. THE WEAK TROUGH IS PUSHED OUT BY THE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE
BERING SEA THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL KNOCK
DOWN THE HIGH A BIT BEGINNING THURSDAY AND MOVE THE AXIS OVER WESTERN
ALASKA. THIS WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL ASIA WILL LIFT THE KAMCHATKA LOW INTO EASTERN SIBERIA. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE LOW IN THE GULF SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN
MOVES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MODEL ANALYSIS...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY.
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES NOTED ARE THE EXACTNESS OF A LOW TRACKING NORTH
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN TUESDAY AND THE EXACT CENTER OF THE
LOW IN THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW.

EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL. EXPECT CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TO
BUILD OVER LAND TONIGHT AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. AS THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
RIDGE MOVES INLAND TONIGHT...FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NORTH WILL PICK UP.
COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF...MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE PRESENT MONDAY OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AS THE LOW WEAKENS IN THE
GULF...SO TOO WILL THE POTENTIAL OF THE WIND SPEEDS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WESTERN
ALASKA AND ALASKA PENINSULA FROM A LOW IN THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. WITH SUPPORT ALOFT...WINDS HAVE
MAINTAINED 40-50 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. GRADIENT AND JET
SUPPORT TO DECREASE QUICKLY TUESDAY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEK. A LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN MONDAY AND TO THE
KAMCHATKA LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO CROSS
THIS AREA AS A RESULT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRATUS TO REMAIN OVER THE
BERING SEA WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. SOME SUNNY BREAKS
ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH. IN ADDITION...SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE TODAY...WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THERE TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130 132 150 155 165 176
FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ZONE 111 141 AND 145 MON AFTN AND
EVE.

JN MAY 06