Gale Warning 457, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 211613 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
815 AM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

UPDATED ZONES 120 129 130 132 138 140 AND 141

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 991 MB LOW 525 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC SUN AND MON. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MON
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-220200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
815 AM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-220200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-220200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-220200-
PASSAGE CANAL
815 AM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-220200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
815 AM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-220200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
815 AM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-220200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
815 AM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-220200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
815 AM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT W 15 KT SOUTH OF ANCHOR POINT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-220200-
KACHEMAK BAY
815 AM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 212056 AAB
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1255 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

UPDATED ZONE 121 AND 129

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 991 MB LOW 525 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC SUN AND MON. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MON
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-220200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
815 AM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-220200-
RESURRECTION BAY
1250 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-220200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-220200-
PASSAGE CANAL
1250 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-220200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
815 AM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-220200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
815 AM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-220200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
815 AM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-220200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
815 AM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT W 15 KT SOUTH OF ANCHOR POINT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-220200-
KACHEMAK BAY
815 AM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 212307
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE GULF THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-221400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT WIND INCREASING TO NW 25 BY MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-221400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-221400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT GUSTS TO 25 KTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT GUSTS TO 30 KTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT GUSTS TO 30 KTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-221400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-221400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING
TO 9 FT BY MORNING. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-221400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING
TO 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-221400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO
8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-221400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-221400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO NW WIND 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SAT MAY 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ANALYSIS...SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH PACIFIC
NORTHWARD ACROSS ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA TO EASTERN RUSSIA. A
CLOSED LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND IS TRACKING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN ALASKA. THERE ARE LOTS OF CLOUDS JUST AHEAD OF THIS AXIS
ALONG WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.
THERE IS A VERY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
IN THE ALEUTIANS AND LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. THERE IS ALSO COLD
ADVECTION OCCURRING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN BERING/AKPENN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS IS
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS REGION. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 181 WHERE GUSTS HAVE REACHED 81 MPH AT
KING COVE. SUBSIDENCE MAY HAVE BEEN ENHANCED IN THIS AREA ON BACK
SIDE OF A VORT-MAX THAT MOVED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL ANALYSIS...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOW GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND DAY 3 MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT
IN HANDLING OF RIDGE OVER THE BERING SO CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH LOW TRACKING UP WEST SIDE
OF RIDGE TOWARD WESTERN ALEUTIANS MON. WILL GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

SHORT-TERM FORECAST...EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND TODAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER VORT-MAXES DROPPING DOWN FROM NORTH ACROSS KUSKOKWIM AND
BRISTOL BAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN A BIT TODAY AS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM AREA...BUT
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION...UPPER
JET MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA/AKPENN...AND SUBSIDENCE
ON BACK SIDE OF VORT-MAXES. BY TUESDAY PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY
LOOSENS UP AND WINDS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
ZONE 181 CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT 5AM - MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE THIS
A BIT LONGER - WILL KEEP AN EYE ON OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE A LAST
MINUTE DECISION. WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ALASKA
RANGE AND TALKEETNAS WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN MANY
LOCALES AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SUSITNA AND MATANUSKA. WILL HAVE
TO CONSIDER ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR
THESE AREAS. OUT WEST EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
UNDER RIDGE AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEEPENS. WARM ADVECTION WEST OF
RIDGE WILL ALSO CREATE FOG AND STRATUS. ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIP IS FOR
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

EXTENDED FORECAST...AS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST GFS TRANSITIONS RIDGE FROM BERING
TO OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. PREVIOUS RUN
MAINTAINED RIDGE OVER BERING. IN ANY CASE LOOK FOR MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS FROM CENTRAL BERING TO SOUTHERN MAINLAND. SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG MOUNTAINS
WHERE MELTING SNOW WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE. MOVEMENT OF RIDGE WOULD
ALLOW A NEW SYSTEM TO MOVE TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEEKS END.
WILL NUDGE A BIT TOWARD THE NEW SOLUTION BY INTRODUCING A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH ZONE 155 FOR KWETHLUK ON THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 150 155 165 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAY 06