Gale Warning 425, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...
PARALLELNAM PROVIDES THE BEST INITIALIZATION FROM THIS MORNINGS RUN.
FOR THE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA...VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATES THAT BOTH GFS AND ETA ARE PLACING THE CENTER WEST OF THE
ACTUAL LOW. MODELS ALSO ARE NOT INITIALIZING THE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC WELL. GFS INITIALIZES THE STORM AS A HEALTHY 993 MB
LOW...WHEREAS PARALLELNAM BELIEVES ITS 1001 MB. IN ANY CASE...MODELS
HAVE COME TOGETHER ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES
THE KENAI PENINSULA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OUT WEST...MODELS AGREE OUT
TO ABOUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DIVERGE FOR A FEW TIME PERIODS...THEN
COME BACK TOGETHER. HEAVILY LEANED UPON ETA FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS IN
BOTH DOMAINS...THEN EDGED BACK TOWARDS GFS BEYOND 48 HOURS.

UPPER LEVELS...
A MERIDIONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST REGION
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THERE ARE TWO CLOSED LOWS OF IMMEDIATE
CONCERN IN THE AREA.  THE FIRST IS HOVERING OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THERE.  IT HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM
THE PRIMARY FLOW FURTHER SOUTH...AND ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW
WILL WEAKEN ACCORDINGLY.  OF MORE PERTINENT CONCERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA IS A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY RESIDING SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS.  AIDED BY A 130 KT JET...THE LOW WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THEN
TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD...AND THEN NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL THURSDAY
EVENING. IT WILL DEVELOP INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT WORKS INLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA MOVES INTO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND ROTATES UNDERNEATH THE
BERING SEA LOW FRIDAY AND INTO THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
HELP TO PULL THE BERING SEA LOW INTO THE GULF AS WELL AND MERGE INTO
ONE SUNDAY MORNING. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER THE
BERING SEA. THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN COOL AS WELL
WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
SURFACE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER
WINDS PREVAILING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN WITH WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY AIDED BY A 160 KT JET. THE
INITIAL LOW WILL WEAKEN AS A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS BECOMES THE DOMINANT LOW
THURSDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE LOW SWINGS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY
BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. PRECIPITATION
WILL PUSH OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE LOW FILLS AND IT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
GULF SATURDAY ENABLING WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO WANE.

SURFACE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST WEAKENING TONIGHT AS ITS PARENT LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
AND WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. ANOTHER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE KODIAK
ISLAND TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT STILL BE SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND. HOWEVER...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST WITH THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT LOSES
ITS STRONG JET SUPPORT. ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY
MORNING TO PUSH ANOTHER FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE GULF AND TO THE
NORTHERN COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE NOT
LIKELY TO BE AS INTENSE DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG JET SUPPORT. THE
LOW ENTIRELY LOSES UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TO
FILL OVER THE GULF. THE LOW EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 120
         GALE 130 132 150 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 111

TD/JN MAY 06