Gale Warning 424, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 032336
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 MB LOW 360 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK
AT 984 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING. A
982 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTH OF ADAK MOVES TO 70 NM SOUTHWEST OF DILLINGHAM
FRIDAY MORNING. 
$$

PKZ150-041400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-041400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-041400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU... VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-041400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-041400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT.  
.MON...N WIND 15 KT.   

$$

PKZ170-041400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-041400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-041400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT IN THE BERING DECREASING TO NE 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-041400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-041400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-041400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-041400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...
PARALLELNAM PROVIDES THE BEST INITIALIZATION FROM THIS MORNINGS RUN.
FOR THE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA...VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATES THAT BOTH GFS AND ETA ARE PLACING THE CENTER WEST OF THE
ACTUAL LOW. MODELS ALSO ARE NOT INITIALIZING THE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC WELL. GFS INITIALIZES THE STORM AS A HEALTHY 993 MB
LOW...WHEREAS PARALLELNAM BELIEVES ITS 1001 MB. IN ANY CASE...MODELS
HAVE COME TOGETHER ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES
THE KENAI PENINSULA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OUT WEST...MODELS AGREE OUT
TO ABOUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DIVERGE FOR A FEW TIME PERIODS...THEN
COME BACK TOGETHER. HEAVILY LEANED UPON ETA FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS IN
BOTH DOMAINS...THEN EDGED BACK TOWARDS GFS BEYOND 48 HOURS.

UPPER LEVELS...
A MERIDIONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST REGION
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THERE ARE TWO CLOSED LOWS OF IMMEDIATE
CONCERN IN THE AREA.  THE FIRST IS HOVERING OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THERE.  IT HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM
THE PRIMARY FLOW FURTHER SOUTH...AND ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW
WILL WEAKEN ACCORDINGLY.  OF MORE PERTINENT CONCERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA IS A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY RESIDING SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS.  AIDED BY A 130 KT JET...THE LOW WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THEN
TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD...AND THEN NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL THURSDAY
EVENING. IT WILL DEVELOP INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT WORKS INLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA MOVES INTO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND ROTATES UNDERNEATH THE
BERING SEA LOW FRIDAY AND INTO THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
HELP TO PULL THE BERING SEA LOW INTO THE GULF AS WELL AND MERGE INTO
ONE SUNDAY MORNING. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER THE
BERING SEA. THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN COOL AS WELL
WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
SURFACE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER
WINDS PREVAILING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN WITH WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY AIDED BY A 160 KT JET. THE
INITIAL LOW WILL WEAKEN AS A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS BECOMES THE DOMINANT LOW
THURSDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE LOW SWINGS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY
BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. PRECIPITATION
WILL PUSH OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE LOW FILLS AND IT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
GULF SATURDAY ENABLING WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO WANE.

SURFACE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST WEAKENING TONIGHT AS ITS PARENT LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
AND WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. ANOTHER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE KODIAK
ISLAND TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT STILL BE SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND. HOWEVER...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST WITH THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT LOSES
ITS STRONG JET SUPPORT. ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY
MORNING TO PUSH ANOTHER FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE GULF AND TO THE
NORTHERN COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE NOT
LIKELY TO BE AS INTENSE DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG JET SUPPORT. THE
LOW ENTIRELY LOSES UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TO
FILL OVER THE GULF. THE LOW EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 120
         GALE 130 132 150 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 111

TD/JN MAY 06