Gale Warning 1041, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 231659 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
755 AM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

UPDATED ZONE 120

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 970 MB LOW 40 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN TO 980 MB 50 NM NORTHEAST OF SEWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
DISSIPATE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BY SUN MORNING. A 950 MB LOW WILL
MOVE TO 370 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA SUN AFTERNOON...AND TO 200 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SITKA MON MORNING AT 955 MB.
$$

PKZ120-240300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
755 AM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50
KT ALONG THE COAST EAST OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-240300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-240300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
645 AM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-240300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-240300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-240300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-240300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-240300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
645 AM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SUN THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-240300-
KACHEMAK BAY
645 AM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 240036
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 976 MB LOW NEAR SEWARD TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND DIMINISH. A 948
MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA SUN AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN TO 968 MB
150 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-241500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-241500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. WINDS
BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-241500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT GUSTING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-241500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING EAST 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-241500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NORTH WIND 30 KT.
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-241500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-241500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-241500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.


$$

PKZ141-241500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SAT DEC 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...

...SUMMARY...
MAIN CONCERN IS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF THIS
MORNING MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY...BRINGING ABUNDANT
SNOW AND WIND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE LAST BIG STORM FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL FOR A WHILE...AS THE STORM TRACK APPEARS TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. IN THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS...THERE ARE NO BIG
SYSTEMS...BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

...MODELS...
MODELS INITIALIZED DECENT WITH THE LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...NAM/WRF STILL BRINGS THE LOW INTO FAR WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...WHILE GFS HAS THE LOW DISSIPATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KENAI PENINSULA. NAM/WRF LOW POSITION WOULD MEAN
MORE SNOW FOR ANCHORAGE. NOT TOTALLY SURE WHICH MODEL TO TRUST...BUT
WILL SIDE WITH NAM/WRF SINCE IT BETTER REFLECTS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND BECAUSE NAM/WRF INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH THE
POSITION OF THE LOW. QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE NEXT GULF
LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE GFS FURTHEST WEST...NAM/WRF
FURTHEST EAST...AND OTHER MODELS IN BETWEEN. A COMPROMISE LOOKS BEST
FOR NOW...BUT EITHER WAY...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OVER OUR AREA ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW. IN THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SMALL LOW PRESSURES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON COLD...SHOWERY PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE JET SOUTH OF THE AREA.

...SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO GET
SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. SNOW HAS NOT YET
MADE IT TO VALDEZ...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY. LESS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...ON SNOWFALL FROM KENAI TO ANCHORAGE TO
PALMER...AS THESE AREAS LIE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE STORM.
POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A BIG SNOW FOR ANCHORAGE...BUT
THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS. MAIN CONCERN IS THE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE AS
INDICATED ON THE 3AM SOUNDING THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS HAD TROUBLE SO
FAR MAKING IT TO THE GROUND DESPITE SNOW FALLING ALOFT. DO BELIEVE
THAT ANCHORAGE WILL RECOVER FROM THIS EVENTUALLY...THOUGH IT MAY
MEAN A LATER START TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
EXACTLY WHERE THE SHARP WEST EDGE OF THE SNOW SETS UP. RIGHT NOW THE
WEST EDGE APPEARS TO SET UP JUST WEST OF ANCHORAGE NEAR FIRE
ISLAND...BUT ANY SMALL CHANGE IN THIS WILL MEAN BIG CHANGES TO THE
WEATHER. ALSO...CONCERNED ABOUT LACK OF STRONG FLOW UP COOK INLET
LATER TODAY LIMITING THE ANCHORAGE SNOW ENHANCEMENT THAT OFTEN
OCCURS WITH UP INLET FLOW. IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SNOW MOSTLY TAPERS OFF SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...WHERE THE SNOW SHOULD KEEP GOING UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FLOW
TRANSITIONS INTO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FOR MONDAY WITH DRIER BUT COLD
WEATHER IN STORE AS THE UPCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HEAD
MORE TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE PAST
MONDAY...HOWEVER...ON WHETHER THE GULF LOWS HEAD UP TOWARD
SOUTHCENTRAL OR TOWARD THE PANHANDLE.

...SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FORECAST...
GENERALLY VERY QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AROUND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...BUT NOTHING MAJOR. ONE SNOW
BAND NEAR BETHEL TODAY DOES BEAR WATCHING...HOWEVER. VERY LITTLE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AROUND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND NOW...BUT IT WILL BE A
FORECAST CHALLENGE TO FIGURE OUT HOW LONG THE AREA CAN STAY FOG FREE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

...BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN FORECAST...
A WEAK NEAR STATIONARY LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR BROUGHT SOME SNOW TO
THEM LAST NIGHT...AND WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY
INTO TONIGHT FOR THE REGION. THIS LOW SHOULD BRING MORE SNOW TO
DUTCH TODAY...AND POSSIBLY TO COLD BAY TONIGHT. FROM THE PRIBILOFS
AND DUTCH HARBOR WEST...UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 350.
         GALE WARNINGS 120 121 130 132.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS 121 129 185.

FOISY DEC 06