Gale Warning 1040, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST FRI DEC 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE LOW IN THE GULF TOO WELL. ALL OF THEM WERE
TOO FAR SOUTH ON THE CENTER LOCATION. THEREFORE...BELIEVE THE SPREAD
OF MOISTURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE A BIT FASTER THAN THE
MODELS HAVE PREDICTED. THE INITIAL STRENGTH OF THE LOW WAS
INITIALIZED WELL THOUGH. A LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH TOMORROW.

WEST OF ALASKA RANGE...MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS TO MOVE THROUGH THE BERING
SEA AND AFFECT THE WESTERN COAST OF ALASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE ARE ALL DEVELOPED AS REFLECTIONS OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
ALASKA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 45N 160W BACK
TO THE CHUKCHI SEA. JET STREAM WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE MAIN
LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA TO DROP INTO THE BERING BY MID WEEK WITH
COLDER AIR AND SOME JET SUPPORT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE BERING. THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF TO KEEP
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING FROM AFFECTING MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA
TONIGHT. WINDS OVER THE AREA TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR
THE LOW IN THE NORTHEAST BERING. HOWEVER...THIS LOW TO WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TO THE NORTON SOUND.

EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...THE LOW IN THE GULF TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH
TONIGHT AND ONTO THE COAST TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE STRONG LOW IN THE GULF HAS CREATED A STRONG
NORTH SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPERIENCING SOME STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE COPPER
RIVER DELTA AND THOMPSON PASS AS WELL AS NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED GAPS ON
THE KENAI PENINSULA. THEREFORE...A BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NEAR SEWARD AND THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION...SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD OVER THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS. SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...MATANUSKA AND
SUSITNA VALLEY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KENAI PENINSULA BY SUNDAY MORNING. OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...SNOW FALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS IS
PREDICATED BY A STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF SUNDAY. THIS
LOW TO SWING TOWARD THE PANHANDLE WITH LITTLE WEATHER TO BE PRESENT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONES 125 AND 131
         SNOW ADVISORY 101 AND 121
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 140 180 185
         STORM 120 130 132
         GALE 138
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN DEC 06