Brisk Wind Advisory 33, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM AST TUE FEB 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ARCTIC THROUGH THE
GULF OF ALASKA ALONG 145W WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.  A SHORT
WAVE WILL SHEAR OFF THE TOP OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTH PORTION OF THE RIDGE REFORMING FRIDAY.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN WITH A RETURN OF MOIST MILD
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE THE POWERFUL STORM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE BERING IS
CURVING NORTHWEST OVER THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC AND IS WEAKENING.  A
SERIES OF LESS POWERFUL LOWS WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LONG AS THE
BLOCKING RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH THE
ALASKA PENINSULA.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN.  THE SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND DISSIPATE WED.  THE NORTH PORTION WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE MAINLAND REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AREAS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.  PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS THE FRONT WEAKENS WED AND THU.

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT FOR THE GULF BLOCKING RIDGE.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE OUT WEST FOR TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SERIES OF LOWS MOVING INTO THE BERING.  BY THU AFTERNOON THE
UKMET...GFS AND ETA ALL HAVE A MODERATE LOW NEAR ADAK...AN EAST-WEST
RIDGE NEAR 60N...A SHORT WAVE NEAR KOTZEBUE SOUND AND ANOTHER
MODERATE LOW MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE WESTERN
PACIFIC.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE AREAS 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 179 180 185
                      350 410

RHH FEB 06