Brisk Wind Advisory 32, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST FRI FEB 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM KAMCHATKA THROUGH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST
AND STRETCHES NORTH TO BARROW. THIS RIDGE IS KEEPING ANY SYSTEM THAT
ENTERS THE GULF OF ALASKA ON A NORTHERLY TRACK UP TOWARDS AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS...A
SHORTWAVE SPINNING AROUND A PARENT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS...IS PRESENTLY 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK AND BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LARGE PARENT LOW...JUST
NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR...IS BRINGING RAIN SNOW AND GALE TO STORM FORCE
WIND TO MOST OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...THE BERING SEA...AND THE
PRIBILOFS.

MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS
THEN QUICKLY DIVERGES...WITH THE NAM OUT OF PHASE AND QUICKER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. HAVE RELIED ON THE NAM SOLUTION ON THE EASTERN
DOMAIN DUE TO THE AGREEMENT OF TIMING AND THE GFS SOLUTION ON THE
WESTERN DOMAIN FOR ITS CONSISTENCY.

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE EASTERN DOMAIN AGAIN TODAY.
ALMOST ALL HIGH WIND FROM YESTERDAY DECREASED OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN TODAY ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALIGNS ITSELF INTO A FAVORED POSITION. THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW FOR
MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS AND STRONG STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PUSHES ITS FRONT OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL
COAST BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH ITS FURTHER PUSH OF
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH...MOST SNOW WILL TURN OVER TO RAIN ALONG
THE COASTS UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN COLD AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE SOME MOISTURE OUT WEST FROM THE PARENT LOW
AS WELL SOME WRAPPING AROUND THE TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING SOUTHCENTRAL.
THE SECOND OF THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL HELP BUILD A WEAK TROUGH OVER
WESTERN ALASKA SATURDAY. A RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ON SUNDAY
BRINGING CLEARING SKIES BEFORE A FRONT FROM A NEW LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS BRINGS MORE CHANCES OF RAIN.

OUT WEST...THE PARENT LOW JUST NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IS BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE AND MOVE NORTH. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE BERING. A SHORT LIVED RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEFORE THE NEXT LOW
ENTERS THE BERING NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BRINGING GALE AND STORM
WINDS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHAIN. THE NEXT LOW
IS SET TO ARRIVE NEAR THE CENTRAL CHAIN ON MONDAY BRINGING STORM
FORCE WINDS AND RAIN TO THE ENTIRE CHAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 120 170 175 176
      ...GALE 130 132 150 155 160 165 171 172 179 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR FEB 06